Between April 2022 and February 2023, Australian home values fell 9.1% in 10 months, the sharpest decline on CoreLogic’s records (CoreLogic, 2023b). Six months into the 2026 downturn, national values are 5.2% below their March peak (Cotality, 2026a). The headlines feel familiar. The conditions underneath them are not.

How did the 2022 downturn play out?

The 2022 fall followed a pandemic boom in which national values rose 28.6% in 19 months (CoreLogic, 2023a). Sydney fell 13.8% from its peak (CoreLogic, 2023b). Brisbane, which had risen 42.7% in the upswing (CoreLogic, 2023a), had fallen 10.9% between June 2022 and late January 2023, its largest and fastest decline on record (Bragg, 2023).

In August 2022, national values fell 1.6%, the largest monthly drop since 1983 (CoreLogic, 2022). Values then turned in early 2023, and by mid-2023 had recovered 2.3% over three months, even as the RBA was still lifting rates (CoreLogic, 2023b).

How does the 2026 downturn compare so far?

Some markets are tracking close to 2022. Sydney is 8.6% below its February 2026 peak, a marginally deeper fall than at the equivalent stage of the 2022-23 downturn (Cotality, 2026a). Brisbane recorded the steepest capital city fall in September, down 1.5%.

The breadth stands out. Cotality (2026a) reports that 97% of capital city suburbs lost value over the three months to September, and national annual growth is now flat.

What is different this time?

Where rates started. In 2022 the cash rate rose 3 percentage points to 3.10% across eight consecutive increases (Cotter, 2022). In 2026 it has risen 1 percentage point (Commonwealth Bank of Australia, 2026) to 4.60%, the highest setting since late 2011 (Tchetchenian, 2026). The moves are smaller, but borrowers started from a much higher repayment base.

The jobs market. Unemployment was 3.5% in September 2022 (Australian Bureau of Statistics [ABS], 2022). In September 2026 it was 4.7% (ABS, 2026). A softer labour market leaves households less room to absorb higher repayments.

Listings. In 2022, vendors tended to hold back rather than sell into a falling market, and new listings trended lower (Elite Agent, 2022). In 2026, new listings are also down 9.2% on a year ago, yet capital city inventory is 23.1% higher because homes are taking a median 39 days to sell, up from 23 (Cotality, 2026a). More unsold stock gives buyers more choice and more leverage.

Policy and energy shocks. The 2022 downturn was driven mostly by interest rates. In 2026, higher rates combine with negative gearing and CGT reforms and a fuel price shock linked to the Iran war.

What is the same?

Rents. In 2022, rents kept rising while values fell, and gross rental yields recovered (CoreLogic, 2022). The same split is happening now. National rents rose 5.5% over the year to September 2026, the vacancy rate rose to 2.1%, and gross yields reached 3.85%, the highest since August 2019 (Cotality, 2026b).

Will prices recover like they did in 2023?

Nobody can say with certainty. In 2023, values turned while rates were still rising. In 2026, unemployment is higher, the tax changes are new and the RBA has kept further increases on the table. Any forecast of the trough is a guess, including ours.

What 2022 does show is that a downturn from a high base can unwind part of a boom rather than all of it. After its record fall, Brisbane was still 27.9% above its August 2020 trough (Bragg, 2023).

What should buyers take from the comparison?

Frequently asked questions

How far did house prices fall in 2022? National values fell 9.1% between April 2022 and February 2023. Sydney fell 13.8%, and Brisbane fell 10.9% by late January 2023.

Is the 2026 property downturn worse than 2022? Nationally it is smaller so far, but Sydney’s fall is marginally deeper than at the same stage of 2022-23, and the economic backdrop is weaker.

This article is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances.

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